The Business Cycle Tracer is a tool to monitor the state and the cycle of the Dutch economy. It presents a coherent macroeconomic picture of the past month or quarter, based on all the figures published by CBS. However, it does not apply equally to all households, enterprises or regions.

Business Cycle Tracer indicator (unweighted average of the indicators in the CBS Business Cycle Tracer)
2015 January -0.58
2015 February -0.53
2015 March -0.47
2015 April -0.42
2015 May -0.37
2015 June -0.32
2015 July -0.29
2015 August -0.25
2015 September -0.23
2015 October -0.22
2015 November -0.2
2015 December -0.19
2016 January -0.2
2016 February -0.18
2016 March -0.15
2016 April -0.13
2016 May -0.08
2016 June -0.08
2016 July -0.05
2016 August 0.01
2016 September 0.05
2016 October 0.08
2016 November 0.14
2016 December 0.19
2017 January 0.23
2017 February 0.29
2017 March 0.34
2017 April 0.38
2017 May 0.43
2017 June 0.47
2017 July 0.49
2017 August 0.56
2017 September 0.6
2017 October 0.64
2017 November 0.71
2017 December 0.76
2018 January 0.8
2018 February 0.85
2018 March 0.88
2018 April 0.88
2018 May 0.89
2018 June 0.88
2018 July 0.86
2018 August 0.86
2018 September 0.85
2018 October 0.83
2018 November 0.82
2018 December 0.79
2019 January 0.74
2019 February 0.71
2019 March 0.68
2019 April 0.64
2019 May 0.62
2019 June 0.58
2019 July 0.55
2019 August 0.51
2019 September 0.47
2019 October 0.45
2019 November 0.4
2019 December 0.49
2020 January 0.37
2020 February 0.3
2020 March 0.19
2020 April -0.36
2020 May -1.06
2020 June -2.01
2020 July -2.01
2020 August -1.3
2020 September -1.14
2020 October -0.93
2020 November -0.88
2020 December -0.64
2021 January -0.75
2021 February -1
2021 March -0.96
2021 April -0.82
2021 May -0.55
2021 Juni -0.36
2021 Juli -0.04
2021 August 0.17
2021 September 0.26
2021 October 0.37
2021 November 0.48
2021 December 0.54
2022 January 0.51
2022 February 0.2
2022 March 0.37
2022 April 0.42
2022 May 0.57
2022 June 0.57
2022 July 0.48
2022 August 0.47
2022 September 0.36
2022 October 0.25

Consumer confidence at all-time low, producer confidence hardly changed

There was little or no change in the confidence of both consumers and producers in October. Consumer confidence remained at its lowest level ever and was well below the long-term average over the past two decades. Producer confidence was slightly less positive in October than a month earlier, but was above its long-term average.

Consumer and producer confidence (seasonally adjusted)
2018 January 24 10.3
2018 February 23 10.9
2018 March 24 9.5
2018 April 25 8.2
2018 May 23 9.8
2018 June 23 7.7
2018 July 23 6.3
2018 August 21 5.9
2018 September 19 5.7
2018 October 15 5.9
2018 November 13 7.2
2018 December 9 7.5
2019 January 0 5.8
2019 February -2 6.3
2019 March -4 6.1
2019 April -3 6.7
2019 May -3 4.7
2019 June 0 3.3
2019 July 2 3.9
2019 August 0 3.9
2019 September -2 3.3
2019 October -1 3.6
2019 November -2 2.8
2019 December -2 2.9
2020 January -3 2.5
2020 February -2 3.7
2020 March -2 0.2
2020 April -22 -28.7
2020 May -31 -25.1
2020 June -27 -15.1
2020 July -26 -8.7
2020 August -29 -5.4
2020 September -28 -4.8
2020 October -30 -5.6
2020 November -26 -3.8
2020 December -20 -0.4
2021 January -19 0.6
2021 February -19 0.1
2021 March -18 3.4
2021 April -14 6.5
2021 May -9 8.8
2021 June -3 11.5
2021 July -4 12.3
2021 August -6 9.6
2021 September -5 11.1
2021 October -10 12.3
2021 November -19 12.7
2021 December -25 10.2
2022 January -28 9
2022 February -30 8.5
2022 March -39 8.7
2022 April -48 10.8
2022 May -47 9.9
2022 June -50 8.1
2022 July -51 8.4
2022 August -54 4.6
2022 September -59 2.6
2022 October -59 2.5

Higher household consumption, exports and investments

Households spent 4.1 percent more in August 2022 year on year, adjusted for price changes and number of shopping days. They again spent more on services, but less on goods. Household consumption growth was slightly lower than in the preceding month.

The volume of investments in tangible fixed assets was 3.1 percent larger year on year. This is mainly because investments in buildings, machinery and passenger cars were up. However, investments in infrastructure were lower than in August 2021.

In August 2022, the total volume of goods exports was up by 2.5 percent year on year. Growth is slightly larger than in the previous month. The increase over August was mainly seen in exports of machinery and appliances.

Manufacturing output almost 6 percent up in August

In August 2022, the average daily output generated by the Dutch manufacturing industry was up by 5.9 percent on August 2021. Growth has been fairly stable over the past three months, but smaller than in the preceding months.

More bankruptcies in September

There were 25 more bankruptcies in September than in the previous month. The number of pronounced bankruptcies is low compared to the period before the outbreak of the coronavirus crisis. In the first three quarters of 2022, it was approximately 5 percent higher than in the first three quarters of 2021.

House price increase levelled off further in September

In September, owner-occupied dwellings (excluding new constructions) were on average 9.4 percent more expensive than in the same month last year. The price increase was 11.9 percent in August. It is the fifth consecutive month that price growth has levelled off.

More hours worked and job vacancies, higher unemployment

In Q2 2022, the number of hours worked adjusted for seasonal effects was 2.6 percent higher than in Q1 2022. Total hours worked by employees and self-employed people over Q2 2022 amounted to approximately 3.7 billion.

At the end of June, the number of unfilled vacancies stood at 467 thousand. This is 16 thousand more than at the end of the previous quarter. It is the eighth quarter in a row that the number of vacancies has increased. The number of unfilled job vacancies has more than doubled in two years.

In September 2022, there were 382 thousand unemployed. Just as in August, this was equivalent to 3.8 percent of the labour force. From July through September, unemployment rose by an average of 14 thousand per month.

In Q2 2022, turnover at temporary employment and job placement agencies rose by 0.7 percent relative to the previous quarter.

GDP (volume)
2015 Quarter 1 1.9
2015 Quarter 2 2.1
2015 Quarter 3 2.5
2015 Quarter 4 1.4
2016 Quarter 1 2.1
2016 Quarter 2 2.3
2016 Quarter 3 2.1
2016 Quarter 4 2.2
2017 Quarter 1 3.2
2017 Quarter 2 3.0
2017 Quarter 3 2.8
2017 Quarter 4 2.6
2018 Quarter 1 2.6
2018 Quarter 2 2.7
2018 Quarter 3 2.2
2018 Quarter 4 1.9
2019 Quarter 1 1.8
2019 Quarter 2 1.9
2019 Quarter 3 2.1
2019 Quarter 4 2.0
2020 Quarter 1 -0.1
2020 Quarter 2 -8.7
2020 Quarter 3 -3.3
2020 Quarter 4 -3.3
2021 Quarter 1 -2.2
2021 Quarter 2 10.2
2021 Quarter 3 5.4
2021 Quarter 4 6.2
2022 Quarter 1 6.7
2022 Quarter 2 5.1

Economic growth of 2.6 percent in Q2 2022

According to the second quarterly estimate conducted by Statistics Netherlands (CBS) on the basis of currently available data, in Q2 2022 gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 2.6 percent relative to the previous quarter. Investments and the balance of trade (exports minus imports) contributed the most to economic growth. Household consumption also made a positive contribution.

GDP was up by 5.1 percent relative to Q2 2021. Household consumption, the trade balance and investments contributed to the growth in particular.

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